Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw ✓93% · fair 1.07
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · @1.38
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗11% · fair 8.81
Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Sunday 3 May: Alianza Lima v UCV Moquegua in the Primera División, played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva. In the table, Alianza Lima are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; UCV Moquegua are 17th (in the drop zone) with 12. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Alianza Lima, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 8–0 win over Cusco, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
UCV Moquegua, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Cienciano, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Lima 2.1 xG, UCV Moquegua 0.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Lima 74%, draw 19%, UCV Moquegua 7%.
GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.38.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Lima 2–0 UCV Moquegua. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Lima74%fair 1.35 · @1.14
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @6.50
UCV Moquegua7%fair 14.88 · @26.00
2.55Expected goals
2.06Alianza Lima xG
0.49UCV Moquegua xG
44%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–017%
1–016%
3–011%
2–18%
1–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 2.1 – 0.5 UCV Moquegua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Lima
UCV Moquegua
Attack vs Primera División average
+7%
-42%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.82
0.45
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✓
74%
1.35
1.14
Double chance
Alianza Lima or draw✓
93%
1.07
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.38
Draw no bet
Alianza Lima (draw no bet)✓
92%
1.09
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Lima -1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.20
First team to score
Alianza Lima to score first✓
74%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Alianza Lima ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✓
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
11%
8.81
–
Recent results
Alianza Lima – last 6
WWLWDW
19 Apr
vs Cusco
8–0
W
14 Apr
@ ADT
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Universitario
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–1
D
10 Mar
vs FBC Melgar
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
UCV Moquegua – last 6
LWWDWL
20 Apr
@ Cienciano
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Juan Pablo II College
3–0
W
3 Apr
@ Sporting Cristal
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Sport Boys
0–0
D
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ FBC Melgar
0–4
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Lima and UCV Moquegua.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and UCV Moquegua 7%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 2–0 UCV Moquegua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua?
Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
