FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Monday 4 May: FBC Melgar v UTC Cajamarca in the Primera División, played at Estadio de la UNSA. In the table, FBC Melgar are 5th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; UTC Cajamarca are 18th (in the drop zone) with 6. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FBC Melgar, last 5: LWWDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Deportivo Garcilaso, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
UTC Cajamarca, last 4: DLDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Sport Huancayo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FBC Melgar 2.2 xG, UTC Cajamarca 0.8 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FBC Melgar 66%, draw 21%, UTC Cajamarca 14%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: FBC Melgar 2–0 UTC Cajamarca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FBC Melgar66%fair 1.53 · @1.51
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @4.10
UTC Cajamarca14%fair 7.25 · @6.20
3.01Expected goals
2.18FBC Melgar xG
0.83UTC Cajamarca xG
55%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: FBC Melgar 2.2 – 0.8 UTC Cajamarca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
Attack vs Primera División average
+13%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
-16%
+25%
Our expected goals here
2.46
0.83
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FBC Melgar to win✓
66%
1.53
1.51
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.85
Draw no bet
FBC Melgar (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
FBC Melgar -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.12
First team to score
FBC Melgar to score first✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
FBC Melgar ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FBC Melgar / FT FBC Melgar✗
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.29
–
Recent results
FBC Melgar – last 6
LWWDDL
28 Apr
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Universitario
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Sport Boys
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ ADT
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Atletico Grau
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Alianza Lima
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
UTC Cajamarca – last 4
DLDW
15 Apr
vs Sport Huancayo
2–2
D
15 Mar
@ Universitario
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ ADT
2–2
D
13 Feb
vs Cusco
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FBC Melgar and UTC Cajamarca.
What is the prediction for FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
On our numbers FBC Melgar have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and UTC Cajamarca 14%.
How many goals will there be in FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
Our predicted score is FBC Melgar 2–0 UTC Cajamarca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca?
FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la UNSA.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
