Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sporting Cristal travel to face Alianza Lima on Sunday 10 May in the Primera División, with Estadio Alejandro Villanueva the venue – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Alianza Lima are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 16 matches; Sporting Cristal are 2nd (among the top four) with 32. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alianza Lima, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over UCV Moquegua, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Sporting Cristal, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Palmeiras, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Alianza Lima, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Sporting Cristal.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Lima 1.8 xG, Sporting Cristal 1.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Lima 57%, draw 25%, Sporting Cristal 19%.
Lower-risk option: Alianza Lima or draw (81%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Lima 1–1 Sporting Cristal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Lima57%fair 1.77 · @1.70
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.65
Sporting Cristal19%fair 5.38 · @4.75
2.83Expected goals
1.81Alianza Lima xG
1.01Sporting Cristal xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–16%
3–16%
From our goals model: Alianza Lima 1.8 – 1.0 Sporting Cristal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Lima
Sporting Cristal
Attack vs Primera División average
+7%
+46%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
+0%
Our expected goals here
1.88
1.13
Our own ratings from every Primera División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Lima to win✗
57%
1.77
1.70
Double chance
Alianza Lima or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.85
Draw no bet
Alianza Lima (draw no bet)
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Sporting Cristal +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.09
First team to score
Alianza Lima to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Alianza Lima ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Lima / FT Alianza Lima✗
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.14
–
Recent results
Alianza Lima – last 6
WWWLWD
3 May
vs UCV Moquegua
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Cusco
8–0
W
14 Apr
@ ADT
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Universitario
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sporting Cristal – last 6
LWLLWL
5 May
vs Palmeiras
0–2
L
29 Apr
vs Junior
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ Atletico Grau
1–4
L
16 Apr
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
9 Apr
vs Cerro Porteno
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs UCV Moquegua
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Lima and Sporting Cristal.
What is the prediction for Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
On our numbers Alianza Lima have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sporting Cristal 19%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
Our predicted score is Alianza Lima 1–1 Sporting Cristal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal?
Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
