Value bet: Joinville to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultJoinville to win ✓56% · @1.91
Double chanceJoinville or draw ✓79% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.75
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Carlos Renaux travel to face Joinville on Saturday 14 February in the Catarinense 1, with Arena Joinville the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Joinville 1.6 xG, Carlos Renaux 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Joinville 56%, draw 23%, Carlos Renaux 21%.
Lower-risk option: Joinville or draw (79%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Joinville to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Joinville 1–0 Carlos Renaux. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Joinville56%fair 1.79 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.10
Carlos Renaux21%fair 4.78 · @3.90
2.41Expected goals
1.58Joinville xG
0.83Carlos Renaux xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Joinville 1.6 – 0.8 Carlos Renaux expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Joinville to win✓
56%
1.79
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Joinville or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.93
Draw no bet
Joinville (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Carlos Renaux +1 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Joinville to score first✓
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Joinville / FT Joinville✓
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.75
–
Recent results
Joinville
No recent results on record.
Carlos Renaux
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Joinville and Carlos Renaux.
What is the prediction for Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
On our numbers Joinville have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Carlos Renaux 21%.
How many goals will there be in Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
Our predicted score is Joinville 1–0 Carlos Renaux, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Joinville vs Carlos Renaux?
Joinville vs Carlos Renaux (Catarinense 1) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Joinville.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Catarinense 1 · Brazil · Arena Joinville
Brusque
Chapecoense-sc