Value bet: Draw @ 2.95 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗37% · @2.95
Double chanceLithuania or draw ✓74% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.94
Moldova vs Lithuania: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lithuania travel to face Moldova on Thursday 26 March in the Friendlies, with Stadionul Zimbru the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Moldova 1.1 xG, Lithuania 1.4 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Moldova 26%, draw 37%, Lithuania 37%.
Lower-risk option: Lithuania or draw (74%) at 1.40.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Draw @2.95 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lithuania or draw (74%, odds 1.40 – longer than our fair 1.36, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Moldova 1–1 Lithuania. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Moldova26%fair 3.78 · @2.75
Draw37%fair 2.70 · @2.95
Lithuania37%fair 2.74 · @2.50
2.51Expected goals
1.10Moldova xG
1.41Lithuania xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%
From our goals model: Moldova 1.1 – 1.4 Lithuania expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Moldova
Lithuania
Attack vs Friendlies average
-1%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
+8%
-13%
Our expected goals here
1.10
1.61
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
37%
2.70
2.95 ▲
Double chance
Lithuania or draw✓
74%
1.36
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Lithuania (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Moldova +1 (Asian handicap)✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Lithuania to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lithuania / FT Lithuania✓
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.94
–
Recent results
Moldova
No recent results on record.
Lithuania
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Moldova and Lithuania.
Our pick is Lithuania or draw with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Moldova vs Lithuania?
On our numbers Moldova have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 37% and Lithuania 37%.
How many goals will there be in Moldova vs Lithuania?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moldova vs Lithuania?
Our predicted score is Moldova 1–1 Lithuania, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Moldova vs Lithuania?
Moldova vs Lithuania (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadionul Zimbru.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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