Value bet: Naivas to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultNaivas to win44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.63
Naivas vs Fortune Sacco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 28 March the Super League brings Naivas against Fortune Sacco. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, Naivas are 5th, upper half, on 0 points after 0 matches; Fortune Sacco are 9th (upper half) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Fortune Sacco, last 3: DLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Vihiga United FC, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Naivas 1.4 xG, Fortune Sacco 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Naivas 44%, draw 26%, Fortune Sacco 30%.
Price worth noting: Naivas to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (59%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Naivas 1–0 Fortune Sacco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Naivas44%fair 2.27 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.10
Fortune Sacco30%fair 3.31 · @2.60
2.36Expected goals
1.39Naivas xG
0.97Fortune Sacco xG
44%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–09%
0–19%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Naivas 1.4 – 1.0 Fortune Sacco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naivas to win
44%
2.27
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
56%
1.78
–
Draw no bet
Naivas (draw no bet)
59%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Fortune Sacco +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.68
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Naivas to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Naivas / FT Naivas
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.63
–
Recent results
Naivas – last 2
WD
28 Feb
vs Luanda Villa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Equity Bank
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fortune Sacco – last 3
DLL
1 Mar
vs Vihiga United FC
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Nairobi City Stars
2–3
L
15 Feb
vs MOFA
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naivas and Fortune Sacco.
What is the prediction for Naivas vs Fortune Sacco?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Naivas vs Fortune Sacco?
On our numbers Naivas have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fortune Sacco 30%.
How many goals will there be in Naivas vs Fortune Sacco?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naivas vs Fortune Sacco?
Our predicted score is Naivas 1–0 Fortune Sacco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Naivas vs Fortune Sacco?
Naivas vs Fortune Sacco (Super League) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
