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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Mafra v Amarante: numbers & prediction

Liga 3 · Portugal · Estadio Municipal de Mafra

Mafra

WWLLD
1–4
FT

Amarante

DWWWW
Mafra 45%Draw 27%Amarante 28% Expected goals 1.54 – 1.10
53%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.88 · bookmaker 2.05 · Won ✓

4/10Rating
2.05Odds

Picks by market

ResultMafra to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.75

Mafra vs Amarante: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Amarante travel to face Mafra on Sunday 19 April in the Liga 3, with Estadio Municipal de Mafra the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.

Current form

Mafra, last 5: WWLLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Varzim, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Amarante, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Academica, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Amarante, collecting 2.6 points per game to 1.2 for Mafra.

Head to head

When they last met (21 Feb 2026) it ended Amarante 1–0 Mafra.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Mafra 1.5 xG, Amarante 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 53%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Mafra 45%, draw 27%, Amarante 28%.
  • GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.05.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 2.05 – longer than our fair 1.88, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mafra 1–1 Amarante. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Mafra45%fair 2.21 · @2.05
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @2.80
Amarante28%fair 3.58 · @3.60
2.64Expected goals
1.54Mafra xG
1.10Amarante xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

From our goals model: Mafra 1.5 – 1.1 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMafra to win ✗45%2.212.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73%1.371.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓53%1.882.05 ▲
Draw no betMafra (draw no bet) ✗62%1.62–
Asian handicapAmarante +1 (Asian handicap) ✓69%1.46–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74%1.35–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗51%1.97–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73%1.37–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗87%1.15–
First team to scoreMafra to score first ✗54%1.85–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗42%2.36–
Half-time / full-timeHT Mafra / FT Mafra ✗28%3.53–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.75–

Recent results

Mafra – last 6

WWLLDL
11 Apr@ Varzim2–0W
3 Aprvs União Santarém2–1W
8 Marvs Guimaraes B1–2L
4 Mar@ União Santarém1–3L
27 Feb@ Trofense1–1D
21 Feb@ Amarante0–1L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Amarante – last 5

DWWWW
29 Marvs Academica1–1D
22 Marvs Guimaraes B2–1W
8 Marvs Trofense1–0W
1 Mar@ CF Os Belenenses2–1W
21 Febvs Mafra1–0W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Head to head

21 Feb 2026Amarante v Mafra1–0
Mafra vs Amarante head-to-head page →

Liga 3 table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Paredes9711+1122
2Leça9423+214
3AD Marco 099423+114
4Fafe9342+413
5Guimaraes B9333+212
6Varzim9405012
7Vianense9252-111
8Pacos Ferreira9324-411
9São João Ver9234-39
10Trofense9126-125
1CF Os Belenenses9630+1221
2Atlético CP9621+1120
3Oliveirense9342013
4União Santarém9414-413
5Mafra9333+412
6Louletano9324011
7Caldas9324-311
8Vitória de Sernache9216-107
9SC Covilha9144-57
10Lusitano Évora 19119144-57

More Liga 3 predictions

League hub
FT Guimaraes B1 União Santarém1 154%1.62X25%3.55221%4.60 1.5–1.0xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 54%@1.73 ✓
FT 1º Dezembro0 Amora1 143%2.10X28%3.10229%3.10 1.2–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.00 ✗
FT SC Braga B1 Sanjoanense2 153%1.85X24%3.40223%3.50 1.7–1.1xG 1XSC Braga B or draw 77%@1.25 ✗
– Academica CF Os Belenenses 141%2.15X26%3.00233%3.10 1.5–1.4xG GGBoth teams to score 61%@1.75

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mafra vs Amarante?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.

Who will win Mafra vs Amarante?

On our numbers Mafra have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Amarante 28%.

How many goals will there be in Mafra vs Amarante?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Mafra vs Amarante?

Our predicted score is Mafra 1–1 Amarante, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Mafra vs Amarante?

Mafra vs Amarante (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.