Tukums vs Super Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:00 WAT, Sunday 22 March: Tukums v Super Nova in the Virsliga. In the table, Tukums are 9th, in the drop zone, on 25 points after 36 matches; Super Nova are 6th (lower half) with 40. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Super Nova, last 4: DLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FS Jelgava, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tukums 1.3 xG, Super Nova 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tukums 40%, draw 26%, Super Nova 34%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (72%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tukums 1–1 Super Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tukums40%fair 2.51 · @2.20
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.35
Super Nova34%fair 2.94 · @2.88
2.49Expected goals
1.29Tukums xG
1.21Super Nova xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.3 – 1.2 Super Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tukums to win✗
40%
2.51
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.62
Draw no bet
Tukums (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Super Nova +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Tukums to score first✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tukums / FT Tukums✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.13
–
Recent results
Tukums – last 2
DL
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ FS Jelgava
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Super Nova – last 4
DLLD
15 Mar
vs FS Jelgava
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Auda
1–2
L
28 Feb
@ Paide
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Kalju Nomme
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums and Super Nova.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Tukums vs Super Nova?
On our numbers Tukums have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Super Nova 34%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Super Nova?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Super Nova?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 Super Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Super Nova?
Tukums vs Super Nova (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
