Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultRiga to win67% · @1.33
Double chanceRiga or draw88% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.16
FS Jelgava vs Riga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Riga travel to face FS Jelgava on Saturday 4 April in the Virsliga, with Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs the venue – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, FS Jelgava are 7th, lower half, on 35 points after 36 matches; Riga are 2nd (among the top four) with 83. There are 48 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FS Jelgava, last 3: DWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Super Nova, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Riga, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Auda, away. 3.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Riga, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.3 for FS Jelgava.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FS Jelgava 0.9 xG, Riga 2.2 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 58% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FS Jelgava 12%, draw 21%, Riga 67%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: FS Jelgava 0–2 Riga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FS Jelgava12%fair 8.62 · @8.60
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @4.40
Riga67%fair 1.49 · @1.33
3.05Expected goals
0.89FS Jelgava xG
2.16Riga xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: FS Jelgava 0.9 – 2.2 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win
67%
1.49
1.33
Double chance
Riga or draw
88%
1.13
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Riga (draw no bet)
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Riga -0.5 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
64%
1.57
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
81%
1.24
–
First team to score
Riga to score first
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
FS Jelgava – last 3
DWL
15 Mar
@ Super Nova
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Tukums
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ FK Liepaja
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Riga – last 3
WWW
20 Mar
@ Auda
2–1
W
24 Feb
@ Flora Tallinn
3–0
W
17 Feb
vs Auda
4–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FS Jelgava and Riga.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FS Jelgava vs Riga?
On our numbers FS Jelgava have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Riga 67%.
How many goals will there be in FS Jelgava vs Riga?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FS Jelgava vs Riga?
Our predicted score is FS Jelgava 0–2 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is FS Jelgava vs Riga?
FS Jelgava vs Riga (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
