Value bet: Tukums to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGrobiņa to win ✗38% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.11
Tukums vs Grobiņa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tukums welcome Grobiņa for a Virsliga fixture on Sunday 5 April (14:00 WAT). In the table, Tukums are 9th, in the drop zone, on 25 points after 36 matches; Grobiņa are 8th (in the drop zone) with 29.
Current form
Tukums, last 3: LDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Super Nova, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tukums 1.3 xG, Grobiņa 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tukums 36%, draw 25%, Grobiņa 38%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Tukums to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tukums 1–1 Grobiņa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tukums36%fair 2.76 · @3.00
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.35
Grobiņa38%fair 2.60 · @2.15
2.46Expected goals
1.28Tukums xG
1.18Grobiņa xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.3 – 1.2 Grobiņa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Grobiņa to win✗
38%
2.60
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.65
Draw no bet
Grobiņa (draw no bet)
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Grobiņa +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Tukums to score first
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tukums / FT Tukums✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
13.11
–
Recent results
Tukums – last 3
LDL
22 Mar
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ FS Jelgava
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Grobiņa – last 2
WL
7 Mar
@ BFC Daugavpils
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Hegelmann Litauen
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums and Grobiņa.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Tukums vs Grobiņa?
On our numbers Tukums have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Grobiņa 38%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs Grobiņa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Grobiņa?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 Grobiņa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs Grobiņa?
Tukums vs Grobiņa (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
