BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 16 April the Virsliga brings BFC Daugavpils against FS Jelgava at Stadions Celtnieks. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, BFC Daugavpils are 4th, among the top four, on 52 points after 36 matches; FS Jelgava are 7th (lower half) with 35. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Auda, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
FS Jelgava, last 4: LDWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Rīgas FS, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours BFC Daugavpils, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for FS Jelgava.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give BFC Daugavpils 1.7 xG, FS Jelgava 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – BFC Daugavpils 47%, draw 25%, FS Jelgava 28%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: BFC Daugavpils 1–1 FS Jelgava. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
BFC Daugavpils47%fair 2.11 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.40
FS Jelgava28%fair 3.62 · @2.85
2.77Expected goals
1.67BFC Daugavpils xG
1.10FS Jelgava xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
1–26%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.7 – 1.1 FS Jelgava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
BFC Daugavpils to win✓
47%
2.11
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.60
Draw no bet
BFC Daugavpils (draw no bet)✓
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
FS Jelgava +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
BFC Daugavpils to score first✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BFC Daugavpils / FT BFC Daugavpils✗
31%
3.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.40
–
Recent results
BFC Daugavpils – last 5
WWWLL
12 Apr
@ Auda
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Ogre United
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
2–0
W
7 Mar
vs Grobiņa
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Suduva Marijampole
3–5
L
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
FS Jelgava – last 4
LDWL
8 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Super Nova
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Tukums
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ FK Liepaja
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFC Daugavpils and FS Jelgava.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FS Jelgava 28%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–1 FS Jelgava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava (Virsliga) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
