Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 2.55 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✗43% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.67
Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
BFC Daugavpils travel to face Tukums on Tuesday 21 April in the Virsliga – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Tukums are 9th, in the drop zone, on 25 points after 36 matches; BFC Daugavpils are 4th (among the top four) with 52. There are 27 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tukums, last 5: DLDDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with FK Liepaja, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FS Jelgava, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours BFC Daugavpils, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.7 for Tukums.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tukums 1.2 xG, BFC Daugavpils 1.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tukums 32%, draw 25%, BFC Daugavpils 43%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: BFC Daugavpils to win @2.55 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tukums 1–1 BFC Daugavpils. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tukums32%fair 3.13 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.50
BFC Daugavpils43%fair 2.34 · @2.55
2.77Expected goals
1.17Tukums xG
1.60BFC Daugavpils xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Tukums 1.2 – 1.6 BFC Daugavpils expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
BFC Daugavpils to win✗
43%
2.34
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.50
Draw no bet
BFC Daugavpils (draw no bet)
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Tukums +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
BFC Daugavpils to score first
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BFC Daugavpils / FT BFC Daugavpils✗
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.67
–
Recent results
Tukums – last 6
DLDDLD
17 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
2–2
D
13 Apr
vs Rīgas FS
1–2
L
9 Apr
@ Riga
3–3
D
5 Apr
vs Grobiņa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Super Nova
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Ogre United
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
BFC Daugavpils – last 6
WWWWLL
16 Apr
vs FS Jelgava
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Auda
3–2
W
7 Apr
vs Ogre United
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs FK Liepaja
2–0
W
7 Mar
vs Grobiņa
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Suduva Marijampole
3–5
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums and BFC Daugavpils.
What is the prediction for Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
On our numbers Tukums have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and BFC Daugavpils 43%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our predicted score is Tukums 1–1 BFC Daugavpils, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils?
Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
