Riga 77%Draw 16%Super Nova 7%Expected goals 2.60 – 0.72
66%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRiga to win ✓77% · @1.12
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓93% · fair 1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.39
Riga vs Super Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 24 May the Virsliga brings Riga against Super Nova at Skonto stadions. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, Riga are 2nd, among the top four, on 83 points after 35 matches; Super Nova are 6th (lower half) with 40. There are 43 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Riga, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Tukums, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Super Nova, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Grobiņa, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Riga, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Super Nova.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Apr 2026) it ended Super Nova 1–4 Riga.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Riga 2.6 xG, Super Nova 0.7 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 66% and GG at 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Riga 77%, draw 16%, Super Nova 7%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Riga 3–0 Super Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Riga77%fair 1.29 · @1.12
Draw16%fair 6.27 · @6.75
Super Nova7%fair 14.75 · @16.00
3.32Expected goals
2.60Riga xG
0.72Super Nova xG
54%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
3–011%
1–09%
2–19%
3–18%
4–07%
From our goals model: Riga 2.6 – 0.7 Super Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Riga vs Super Nova?
On our numbers Riga have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Super Nova 7%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Super Nova?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Super Nova?
Our predicted score is Riga 3–0 Super Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Riga vs Super Nova?
Riga vs Super Nova (Virsliga) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto stadions.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
