Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBFC Daugavpils to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chanceBFC Daugavpils or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.58
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Saturday 20 June: BFC Daugavpils v Grobiņa in the Virsliga, played at Stadions Celtnieks. In the table, BFC Daugavpils are 4th, among the top four, on 52 points after 36 matches; Grobiņa are 8th (in the drop zone) with 29. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: DDDLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Super Nova, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Grobiņa, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FK Liepaja, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (2 May 2026) it ended Grobiņa 1–1 BFC Daugavpils. The last 2 head-to-heads: BFC Daugavpils 0 wins, Grobiņa 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 1.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give BFC Daugavpils 1.7 xG, Grobiņa 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – BFC Daugavpils 58%, draw 25%, Grobiņa 17%.
Lower-risk option: BFC Daugavpils or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: BFC Daugavpils to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Grobiņa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
BFC Daugavpils58%fair 1.72 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.35
Grobiņa17%fair 5.78 · @3.80
2.50Expected goals
1.74BFC Daugavpils xG
0.76Grobiņa xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.7 – 0.8 Grobiņa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Grobiņa 17%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–0 Grobiņa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa?
BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 20 June 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
