Value bet: BFC Daugavpils to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗38% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.32
BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FK Liepaja travel to face BFC Daugavpils on Saturday 4 July in the Virsliga, with Stadions Celtnieks the venue – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, BFC Daugavpils are 4th, among the top four, on 52 points after 36 matches; FK Liepaja are 5th (upper half) with 51. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: LDWDD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Rīgas FS, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
FK Liepaja, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Ogre United, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (17 May 2026) it ended FK Liepaja 2–1 BFC Daugavpils. The last 2 head-to-heads: BFC Daugavpils 1 win, FK Liepaja 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give BFC Daugavpils 1.4 xG, FK Liepaja 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – BFC Daugavpils 37%, draw 25%, FK Liepaja 38%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: BFC Daugavpils to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (70%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: BFC Daugavpils 1–1 FK Liepaja. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
BFC Daugavpils37%fair 2.72 · @3.10
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.50
FK Liepaja38%fair 2.64 · @2.05
2.56Expected goals
1.37BFC Daugavpils xG
1.19FK Liepaja xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: BFC Daugavpils 1.4 – 1.2 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
On our numbers BFC Daugavpils have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FK Liepaja 38%.
How many goals will there be in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
Our predicted score is BFC Daugavpils 1–1 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadions Celtnieks.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
