Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRiga to win ✓80% · @1.10
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓94% · fair 1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.43
Riga vs Tukums: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 18 July the Virsliga brings Riga against Tukums at Skonto stadions. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Riga are 2nd, among the top four, on 83 points after 35 matches; Tukums are 9th (in the drop zone) with 25. There are 58 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Riga, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Ararat-Armenia, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tukums, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Super Nova, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Riga, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Tukums.
Head to head
When they last met (20 May 2026) it ended Tukums 1–3 Riga. The last 2 head-to-heads: Riga 1 win, Tukums 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 5.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Riga 3.0 xG, Tukums 0.7 xG – a total near 3.7. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 73% and GG at 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Riga 80%, draw 13%, Tukums 6%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Riga 3–0 Tukums. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Riga80%fair 1.24 · @1.10
Draw13%fair 7.50 · @7.75
Tukums6%fair 15.83 · @17.00
3.71Expected goals
2.96Riga xG
0.75Tukums xG
56%Both score
73%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
3–011%
2–18%
3–18%
4–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Riga 3.0 – 0.7 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Riga vs Tukums?
On our numbers Riga have a 80% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Tukums 6%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Tukums?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is Riga 3–0 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Riga vs Tukums?
Riga vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto stadions.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
