FK Liepaja 67%Draw 19%Tukums 14%Expected goals 2.17 – 0.88
67%
Betarazi pick
FK Liepaja to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultFK Liepaja to win ✗67% · @1.44
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.20
FK Liepaja vs Tukums: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Saturday 24 October: FK Liepaja v Tukums in the Virsliga, played at Daugava Stadium. In the table, FK Liepaja are 5th, upper half, on 51 points after 36 matches; Tukums are 9th (in the drop zone) with 25. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FK Liepaja, last 5: WLDDD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over FS Jelgava, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tukums, last 5: LLDLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Rīgas FS, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours FK Liepaja, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Tukums.
Head to head
When they last met (2 Aug 2026) it ended Tukums 2–1 FK Liepaja. The last 3 head-to-heads: FK Liepaja 1 win, Tukums 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 3.3 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FK Liepaja 2.2 xG, Tukums 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FK Liepaja 67%, draw 19%, Tukums 14%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FK Liepaja to win (67%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: FK Liepaja 2–0 Tukums. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FK Liepaja67%fair 1.49 · @1.44
Draw19%fair 5.27 · @4.20
Tukums14%fair 7.17 · @5.50
3.05Expected goals
2.17FK Liepaja xG
0.88Tukums xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: FK Liepaja 2.2 – 0.9 Tukums expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is FK Liepaja to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
On our numbers FK Liepaja have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tukums 14%.
How many goals will there be in FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
Our predicted score is FK Liepaja 2–0 Tukums, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
FK Liepaja vs Tukums (Virsliga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Daugava Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
