Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi to win ✗53% · @1.85
Double chanceNeftchi or draw ✗78% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.54
Neftchi vs Pakhtakor: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pakhtakor travel to face Neftchi on Thursday 9 April in the Super League, with Istiqlol Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Neftchi are 1st, leading the league, on 61 points after 26 matches; Pakhtakor are 2nd (among the top four) with 59. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Neftchi, last 4: WWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Lokomotiv, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Pakhtakor, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Olmaliq, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Neftchi, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.0 for Pakhtakor.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Mar 2026) it ended Neftchi 1–0 Pakhtakor.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Neftchi 2.0 xG, Pakhtakor 1.3 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Neftchi 53%, draw 26%, Pakhtakor 22%.
Lower-risk option: Neftchi or draw (78%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Neftchi or draw (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Neftchi 1–1 Pakhtakor. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Neftchi53%fair 1.90 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.00
Pakhtakor22%fair 4.59 · @3.90
3.33Expected goals
1.98Neftchi xG
1.34Pakhtakor xG
62%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–07%
2–07%
1–26%
2–26%
From our goals model: Neftchi 2.0 – 1.3 Pakhtakor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Neftchi or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Neftchi vs Pakhtakor?
On our numbers Neftchi have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Pakhtakor 22%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi vs Pakhtakor?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi vs Pakhtakor?
Our predicted score is Neftchi 1–1 Pakhtakor, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Neftchi vs Pakhtakor?
Neftchi vs Pakhtakor (Super League) kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Istiqlol Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
