Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNasaf to win ✗45% · @2.15
Double chanceNasaf or draw ✗73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.52
Nasaf vs Lokomotiv: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lokomotiv travel to face Nasaf on Thursday 23 April in the Super League, with Markaziy Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Nasaf are 4th, among the top four, on 45 points after 27 matches; Lokomotiv are 6th (upper half) with 43. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nasaf, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Buxoro, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Lokomotiv, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Navbahor, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Nasaf, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Lokomotiv.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nasaf 1.3 xG, Lokomotiv 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nasaf 45%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv 27%.
Lower-risk option: Nasaf or draw (73%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Nasaf or draw (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nasaf 1–0 Lokomotiv. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nasaf45%fair 2.22 · @2.15
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @2.80
Lokomotiv27%fair 3.68 · @3.20
2.30Expected goals
1.35Nasaf xG
0.95Lokomotiv xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Nasaf 1.3 – 1.0 Lokomotiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nasaf to win✗
45%
2.22
2.15
Double chance
Nasaf or draw✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Nasaf (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.60
–
Asian handicap
Lokomotiv +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Nasaf to score first
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nasaf / FT Nasaf✗
27%
3.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.52
–
Recent results
Nasaf – last 6
DDWLDW
13 Apr
vs Buxoro
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Kokand-1912
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Andijan
1–0
W
20 Mar
vs Surkhon
0–1
L
12 Mar
@ Dinamo Samarqand
1–1
D
6 Mar
@ Sogdiana
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Lokomotiv – last 6
LWDLLD
17 Apr
vs Navbahor
0–2
L
12 Apr
@ Dinamo Samarqand
2–1
W
7 Apr
vs Xorazm
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Bunyodkor
0–2
L
20 Mar
@ Neftchi
1–3
L
11 Mar
vs Kokand-1912
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nasaf and Lokomotiv.
Our pick is Nasaf or draw with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Nasaf vs Lokomotiv?
On our numbers Nasaf have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Lokomotiv 27%.
How many goals will there be in Nasaf vs Lokomotiv?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nasaf vs Lokomotiv?
Our predicted score is Nasaf 1–0 Lokomotiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Nasaf vs Lokomotiv?
Nasaf vs Lokomotiv (Super League) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Markaziy Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
