Pakhtakor vs Nasaf: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Tuesday 28 April: Pakhtakor v Nasaf in the Super League, played at Pakhtakor Central Stadium. In the table, Pakhtakor are 2nd, among the top four, on 59 points after 27 matches; Nasaf are 4th (among the top four) with 45. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Pakhtakor, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Buxoro, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Nasaf, last 5: LDDWL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Lokomotiv, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Pakhtakor, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.0 for Nasaf.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pakhtakor 1.4 xG, Nasaf 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pakhtakor 50%, draw 27%, Nasaf 23%.
Lower-risk option: Pakhtakor or draw (77%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.78, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pakhtakor 1–1 Nasaf. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pakhtakor50%fair 1.99 · @1.62
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.30
Nasaf23%fair 4.31 · @4.80
2.41Expected goals
1.37Pakhtakor xG
1.04Nasaf xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Pakhtakor 1.4 – 1.0 Nasaf expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pakhtakor to win✗
50%
1.99
1.62
Double chance
Pakhtakor or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.85
Draw no bet
Pakhtakor (draw no bet)
68%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
Nasaf +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Pakhtakor to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pakhtakor / FT Pakhtakor✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.40
–
Recent results
Pakhtakor – last 6
WWWWWL
22 Apr
@ Buxoro
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Mash'al
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Neftchi
1–0
W
4 Apr
vs Olmaliq
3–1
W
20 Mar
@ Sogdiana
4–2
W
15 Mar
@ Neftchi
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nasaf – last 6
LDDWLD
23 Apr
vs Lokomotiv
2–3
L
13 Apr
vs Buxoro
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Kokand-1912
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Andijan
1–0
W
20 Mar
vs Surkhon
0–1
L
12 Mar
@ Dinamo Samarqand
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pakhtakor and Nasaf.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Nasaf?
On our numbers Pakhtakor have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Nasaf 23%.
How many goals will there be in Pakhtakor vs Nasaf?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pakhtakor vs Nasaf?
Our predicted score is Pakhtakor 1–1 Nasaf, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Pakhtakor vs Nasaf?
Pakhtakor vs Nasaf (Super League) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Pakhtakor Central Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
