Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLokomotiv to win ✓56% · @1.73
Double chanceLokomotiv or draw ✓83% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Lokomotiv vs Qizilqum: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Monday 4 May: Lokomotiv v Qizilqum in the Super League, played at Lokomotiv Stadium. In the table, Lokomotiv are 6th, upper half, on 43 points after 27 matches; Qizilqum are 9th (lower half) with 35.
Current form
Lokomotiv, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Olmaliq, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Qizilqum, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Xorazm, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv 1.6 xG, Qizilqum 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv 56%, draw 27%, Qizilqum 17%.
Lower-risk option: Lokomotiv or draw (83%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lokomotiv to win (56%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv 1–0 Qizilqum. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lokomotiv56%fair 1.80 · @1.73
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.00
Qizilqum17%fair 5.73 · @4.75
2.38Expected goals
1.56Lokomotiv xG
0.81Qizilqum xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv 1.6 – 0.8 Qizilqum expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv to win✓
56%
1.80
1.73
Double chance
Lokomotiv or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Lokomotiv (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Qizilqum +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Lokomotiv to score first✓
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv / FT Lokomotiv✗
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.84
–
Recent results
Lokomotiv – last 6
LWLWDL
27 Apr
@ Olmaliq
1–2
L
23 Apr
@ Nasaf
3–2
W
17 Apr
vs Navbahor
0–2
L
12 Apr
@ Dinamo Samarqand
2–1
W
7 Apr
vs Xorazm
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Bunyodkor
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Qizilqum – last 6
DWWLLL
29 Apr
vs Xorazm
0–0
D
24 Apr
vs Kokand-1912
2–1
W
17 Apr
@ Surkhon
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Sogdiana
1–3
L
9 Apr
@ Buxoro
0–2
L
18 Mar
vs Olmaliq
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv and Qizilqum.
Our pick is Lokomotiv to win with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Lokomotiv vs Qizilqum?
On our numbers Lokomotiv have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Qizilqum 17%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv vs Qizilqum?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv vs Qizilqum?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv 1–0 Qizilqum, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv vs Qizilqum?
Lokomotiv vs Qizilqum (Super League) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Lokomotiv Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
