Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi to win ✓66% · @1.25
Double chanceNeftchi or draw ✓85% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.45
Neftchi vs Surkhon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Surkhon travel to face Neftchi on Wednesday 9 September in the Super League, with Istiqlol Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Neftchi are 1st, leading the league, on 61 points after 26 matches; Surkhon are 10th (lower half) with 31. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Neftchi, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 2–6 defeat to Nasaf, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Surkhon, last 5: WLDDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Bunyodkor, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Neftchi, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Surkhon.
Head to head
When they last met (5 Mar 2026) it ended Surkhon 0–3 Neftchi.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Neftchi 1.9 xG, Surkhon 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Neftchi 66%, draw 19%, Surkhon 15%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Neftchi to win (66%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Neftchi 1–0 Surkhon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Neftchi66%fair 1.52 · @1.25
Draw19%fair 5.34 · @4.80
Surkhon15%fair 6.49 · @8.00
2.65Expected goals
1.90Neftchi xG
0.75Surkhon xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Neftchi 1.9 – 0.8 Surkhon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Neftchi to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Neftchi vs Surkhon?
On our numbers Neftchi have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Surkhon 15%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi vs Surkhon?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi vs Surkhon?
Our predicted score is Neftchi 1–0 Surkhon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Neftchi vs Surkhon?
Neftchi vs Surkhon (Super League) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Istiqlol Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
