Value bet: Surkhon to win @ 3.25 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBuxoro to win ✗41% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.16
Buxoro vs Surkhon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Friday 23 October: Buxoro v Surkhon in the Super League, played at Buxoro FA Stadioni. In the table, Buxoro are 7th, upper half, on 42 points after 27 matches; Surkhon are 10th (lower half) with 31.
Current form
Buxoro, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Dinamo Samarqand, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Surkhon, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Xorazm, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Buxoro 1.3 xG, Surkhon 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Buxoro 41%, draw 23%, Surkhon 36%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Surkhon to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.76, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Buxoro 1–1 Surkhon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Buxoro41%fair 2.43 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.00
Surkhon36%fair 2.79 · @3.25
2.42Expected goals
1.27Buxoro xG
1.15Surkhon xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Buxoro 1.3 – 1.2 Surkhon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Buxoro to win✗
41%
2.43
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
Buxoro (draw no bet)
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Surkhon +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Buxoro to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Buxoro / FT Buxoro✗
22%
4.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.16
–
Recent results
Buxoro – last 6
WWLLLD
17 Oct
@ Dinamo Samarqand
2–1
W
9 Oct
vs Andijan
3–2
W
19 Sep
@ Bunyodkor
1–2
L
11 Sep
vs Navbahor
1–4
L
5 Sep
@ Qizilqum
2–3
L
24 Aug
@ Kokand-1912
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Surkhon – last 6
DDWLWL
16 Oct
vs Xorazm
0–0
D
10 Oct
@ Qizilqum
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Kokand-1912
1–0
W
9 Sep
@ Neftchi
1–2
L
4 Sep
@ Bunyodkor
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs PFK Guliston
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Buxoro and Surkhon.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Buxoro vs Surkhon?
On our numbers Buxoro have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Surkhon 36%.
How many goals will there be in Buxoro vs Surkhon?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Buxoro vs Surkhon?
Our predicted score is Buxoro 1–1 Surkhon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Buxoro vs Surkhon?
Buxoro vs Surkhon (Super League) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Buxoro FA Stadioni.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
