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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Kitakyushu v Sagan Tosu: numbers & prediction

J2 League · Japan · Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu

Kitakyushu

WWLLL
0–1
FT

Sagan Tosu

LWWWL
Kitakyushu 28%Draw 27%Sagan Tosu 45% Expected goals 1.05 – 1.38
74%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.30Odds

Picks by market

ResultSagan Tosu to win ✓45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.34

Kitakyushu vs Sagan Tosu: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Kitakyushu welcome Sagan Tosu to Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu for a J2 League fixture on Sunday 12 April (06:00 WAT).

Current form

Kitakyushu, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FC Ryukyu, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Sagan Tosu, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Oita Trinita, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Sagan Tosu, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Kitakyushu.

Head to head

When they last met (14 Mar 2026) it ended Sagan Tosu 1–0 Kitakyushu.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Kitakyushu 1.1 xG, Sagan Tosu 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Kitakyushu 28%, draw 27%, Sagan Tosu 45%.
  • GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kitakyushu 1–1 Sagan Tosu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Kitakyushu28%fair 3.52 · @3.25
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.20
Sagan Tosu45%fair 2.24 · @2.10
2.44Expected goals
1.05Kitakyushu xG
1.38Sagan Tosu xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
1–29%
0–09%
0–28%

From our goals model: Kitakyushu 1.1 – 1.4 Sagan Tosu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

KitakyushuSagan Tosu
Attack vs J2 League average-16%-13%
Goals conceded vs average+22%-16%
Our expected goals here0.991.28

Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSagan Tosu to win ✓45%2.242.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73%1.371.28
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗59%1.691.70
Draw no betSagan Tosu (draw no bet) ✓61%1.64–
Asian handicapKitakyushu +1 (Asian handicap)72%1.38–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗71%1.411.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓54%1.861.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74%1.341.30
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.11–
First team to scoreSagan Tosu to score first ✓52%1.93–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗45%2.24–
Half-time / full-timeHT Sagan Tosu / FT Sagan Tosu ✓26%3.84–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.34–

Recent results

Kitakyushu – last 6

WWLLLL
29 Marvs FC Ryukyu1–0W
22 Mar@ Renofa Yamaguchi1–0W
14 Mar@ Sagan Tosu0–1L
7 Marvs Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–3L
28 Febvs Biwako Shiga1–2L
22 Feb@ Roasso Kumamoto1–4L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Sagan Tosu – last 6

LWWWLL
5 Aprvs Oita Trinita0–1L
29 Mar@ Gainare Tottori2–0W
22 Mar@ Biwako Shiga2–0W
14 Marvs Kitakyushu1–0W
7 Mar@ Renofa Yamaguchi0–2L
28 Febvs Kagoshima United0–1L
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

14 Mar 2026Sagan Tosu v Kitakyushu1–0
Kitakyushu vs Sagan Tosu head-to-head page →

J2 League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Albirex Niigata161024-132
2Yokohama FC16943+1531
3Kataller Toyama16943+1431
4Vegalta Sendai16934+1330
5Omiya Ardija16862+1230
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki16853+929
7Consadole Sapporo16826+326
8Iwaki16727+423
9Jubilo Iwata16655+223
10Shonan Bellmare16583+123
11Oita Trinita16574+522
12Blaublitz Akita16556020
13Sagan Tosu16628-320
14Montedio Yamagata16619-219
15Tokushima Vortis16529-517
16Fujieda MYFC16376-416
17Vanraure Hachinohe164210-1514
18Tochigi City163310-1012
19Imabari163310-1612
20Ventforet Kofu163310-2212

More J2 League predictions

League hub
– Parceiro Nagano1 Jubilo Iwata1 Pens 1–4 121%4.60X26%3.50253%1.68 1.0–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.30 ✓
FT Montedio Yamagata1 Yokohama FC0 126%3.20X26%3.20248%2.10 1.0–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.28 ✓
FT Blaublitz Akita0 Shonan Bellmare1 137%2.62X30%3.00233%2.60 1.2–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓
FT Sagamihara0 Vegalta Sendai3 121%3.80X25%3.40253%1.85 1.2–1.8xG X2Vegalta Sendai or draw 79%@1.20 ✓
FT Tochigi City2 Vanraure Hachinohe4 141%2.50X27%3.00232%2.70 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.20 ✗
FT Tochigi SC5 Thespakusatsu Gunma1 145%2.10X25%3.10230%3.25 1.7–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.33 ✓
FT Matsumoto Yamaga4 Omiya Ardija1 125%3.75X25%3.50250%1.83 1.3–1.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓
FT Fukushima United2 Iwaki3 122%4.60X24%3.85255%1.62 1.3–1.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 80%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kitakyushu vs Sagan Tosu?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Kitakyushu vs Sagan Tosu?

On our numbers Kitakyushu have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sagan Tosu 45%.

How many goals will there be in Kitakyushu vs Sagan Tosu?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Kitakyushu vs Sagan Tosu?

Our predicted score is Kitakyushu 1–1 Sagan Tosu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Kitakyushu vs Sagan Tosu?

Kitakyushu vs Sagan Tosu (J2 League) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.