Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✗50% · @2.25
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.53
Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Defensor Sporting travel to face Liverpool Montevideo on Saturday 14 February in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Belvedere the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT. In the table, Liverpool Montevideo are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 13 matches; Defensor Sporting are 13th (lower half) with 12. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 xG, Defensor Sporting 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool Montevideo 50%, draw 26%, Defensor Sporting 24%.
Lower-risk option: Liverpool Montevideo or draw (76%) at 1.33.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Liverpool Montevideo to win @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Liverpool Montevideo or draw (76%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Defensor Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool Montevideo50%fair 2.00 · @2.25
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.00
Defensor Sporting24%fair 4.11 · @3.20
2.51Expected goals
1.63Liverpool Montevideo xG
0.88Defensor Sporting xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 – 0.9 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+15%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
+25%
Our expected goals here
1.85
0.74
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
50%
2.00
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✗
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.83
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)✗
67%
1.49
–
Asian handicap
Defensor Sporting +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
34%
2.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.53
–
Recent results
Liverpool Montevideo
No recent results on record.
Defensor Sporting
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool Montevideo and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Liverpool Montevideo or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Defensor Sporting 24%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
