Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win43% · @2.52
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.34
Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Maldonado welcome Progreso for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Saturday 14 February (21:00 WAT). In the table, Deportivo Maldonado are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Maldonado 1.8 xG, Progreso 1.2 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 50% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Maldonado 43%, draw 27%, Progreso 29%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.42 – longer than our fair 1.38, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Maldonado43%fair 2.32 · @2.52
Draw27%fair 3.64 · @2.98
Progreso29%fair 3.41 · @2.80
2.96Expected goals
1.77Deportivo Maldonado xG
1.19Progreso xG
61%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–110%
1–09%
2–08%
1–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.8 – 1.2 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+14%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
-23%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.49
0.74
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win
43%
2.32
2.52 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.65
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Deportivo Maldonado (draw no bet)
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.38
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
50%
1.98
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Deportivo Maldonado to score first
57%
1.76
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
39%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado
31%
3.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.34
–
Recent results
Deportivo Maldonado
No recent results on record.
Progreso
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Maldonado and Progreso.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Progreso 29%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Maldonado 1–1 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?
Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
