Central Espanol vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:30 WAT, Monday 16 February: Central Espanol v Penarol in the Primera División Apertura. In the table, Central Espanol are 16th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Central Espanol 0.8 xG, Penarol 2.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Central Espanol 13%, draw 23%, Penarol 64%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Central Espanol 0–2 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Central Espanol13%fair 8.00 · @7.50
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @4.10
Penarol64%fair 1.55 · @1.41
2.75Expected goals
0.77Central Espanol xG
1.98Penarol xG
51%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–213%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–06%
From our goals model: Central Espanol 0.8 – 2.0 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Central Espanol
Penarol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-31%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+24%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.63
1.64
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
64%
1.55
1.41
Double chance
Penarol or draw✗
87%
1.14
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.00
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)✗
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Penarol -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.37
–
Recent results
Central Espanol
No recent results on record.
Penarol
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Central Espanol and Penarol.
What is the prediction for Central Espanol vs Penarol?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Central Espanol vs Penarol?
On our numbers Central Espanol have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penarol 64%.
How many goals will there be in Central Espanol vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Central Espanol vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Central Espanol 0–2 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Central Espanol vs Penarol?
Central Espanol vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
