Independiente del Valle 63%Draw 22%Aucas 15%Expected goals 1.93 – 0.74
63%
Betarazi pick
Independiente del Valle to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.53
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win63% · @1.53
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw85% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.46
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Saturday 14 March: Independiente del Valle v Aucas in the Liga Pro, played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil. In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 84 points after 35 matches; Aucas are 5th with 54. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 1.9 xG, Aucas 0.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 63%, draw 22%, Aucas 15%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente del Valle to win (63%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 1–0 Aucas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle63%fair 1.58 · @1.53
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.60
Aucas15%fair 6.69 · @5.00
2.67Expected goals
1.93Independiente del Valle xG
0.74Aucas xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 1.9 – 0.7 Aucas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win
63%
1.58
1.53
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw
85%
1.18
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.79
1.85
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.46
–
Recent results
Independiente del Valle – last 2
WW
3 Mar
@ Manta FC
2–0
W
23 Feb
vs Guayaquil City FC
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Aucas – last 1
L
8 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and Aucas.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aucas 15%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 1–0 Aucas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Aucas?
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
