Value bet: Universidad Catolica to win @ 2.88 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultUniversidad Catolica to win38% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 11.95
Aucas vs Universidad Catolica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Universidad Catolica travel to face Aucas on Saturday 9 May in the Liga Pro, with Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda the venue – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Aucas are 5th on 54 points after 36 matches; Universidad Catolica are 3rd with 54. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Aucas, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Libertad, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Universidad Catolica, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Independiente del Valle, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Aucas, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Universidad Catolica.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aucas 1.2 xG, Universidad Catolica 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aucas 37%, draw 25%, Universidad Catolica 38%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Universidad Catolica to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aucas 1–1 Universidad Catolica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aucas37%fair 2.72 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.45
Universidad Catolica38%fair 2.64 · @2.88
2.52Expected goals
1.21Aucas xG
1.31Universidad Catolica xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Aucas 1.2 – 1.3 Universidad Catolica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Universidad Catolica to win
38%
2.64
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.74
1.67
Draw no bet
Universidad Catolica (draw no bet)
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Aucas +0.5 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.94
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.11
First team to score
Universidad Catolica to score first
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Universidad Catolica / FT Universidad Catolica
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
11.95
–
Recent results
Aucas – last 6
LWDWWW
2 May
@ Libertad
2–3
L
28 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
23 Apr
@ LDU de Quito
0–0
D
17 Apr
@ Leones del Norte
1–0
W
13 Apr
vs Emelec
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Macara
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Universidad Catolica – last 6
LLWDWD
1 May
vs Independiente del Valle
2–3
L
27 Apr
@ Manta FC
0–1
L
24 Apr
vs Macara
4–0
W
9 Apr
vs Emelec
1–1
D
17 Mar
vs Deportivo Cuenca
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ LDU de Quito
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aucas and Universidad Catolica.
What is the prediction for Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
On our numbers Aucas have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Universidad Catolica 38%.
How many goals will there be in Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
Our predicted score is Aucas 1–1 Universidad Catolica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Aucas vs Universidad Catolica?
Aucas vs Universidad Catolica (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
