Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultEmelec to win47% · @1.80
Double chanceEmelec or draw75% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.46
Emelec vs Libertad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Emelec welcome Libertad to Estadio George Capwell for a Liga Pro fixture on Sunday 10 May (21:30 WAT). In the table, Emelec are 10th on 45 points after 36 matches; Libertad are 7th with 51.
Current form
Emelec, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Leones del Norte, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Libertad, last 5: WLLDD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Aucas, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Emelec 1.2 xG, Libertad 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Emelec 47%, draw 28%, Libertad 25%.
Lower-risk option: Emelec or draw (75%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Emelec 1–1 Libertad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Emelec47%fair 2.13 · @1.80
Draw28%fair 3.58 · @3.45
Libertad25%fair 3.98 · @4.40
2.23Expected goals
1.21Emelec xG
1.02Libertad xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Emelec 1.2 – 1.0 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Emelec to win
47%
2.13
1.80
Double chance
Emelec or draw
75%
1.34
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.91
2.00
Draw no bet
Emelec (draw no bet)
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Libertad +1 (Asian handicap)
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.10
1.06
First team to score
Emelec to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Emelec / FT Emelec
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.46
–
Recent results
Emelec – last 6
LWWLLD
3 May
@ Leones del Norte
0–2
L
25 Apr
vs LDU de Quito
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–0
W
18 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
1–3
L
13 Apr
@ Aucas
0–2
L
9 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 6
WLLDDL
2 May
vs Aucas
3–2
W
21 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Emelec and Libertad.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Emelec vs Libertad?
On our numbers Emelec have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Libertad 25%.
How many goals will there be in Emelec vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Emelec vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Emelec 1–1 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Emelec vs Libertad?
Emelec vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio George Capwell.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
