Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 2.78 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLeones del Norte to win ✓41% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.48
Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Liga Pro brings Leones del Norte against Mushuc Runa SC at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Leones del Norte are 9th on 47 points after 36 matches; Mushuc Runa SC are 12th with 43.
Current form
Leones del Norte, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Orense SC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Mushuc Runa SC, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to LDU de Quito, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Leones del Norte, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Mushuc Runa SC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones del Norte 1.4 xG, Mushuc Runa SC 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones del Norte 41%, draw 27%, Mushuc Runa SC 33%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Leones del Norte to win @2.78 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones del Norte 1–1 Mushuc Runa SC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones del Norte41%fair 2.46 · @2.78
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.05
Mushuc Runa SC33%fair 3.06 · @2.60
2.44Expected goals
1.36Leones del Norte xG
1.08Mushuc Runa SC xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.4 – 1.1 Mushuc Runa SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones del Norte to win✓
41%
2.46
2.78 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Leones del Norte (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Mushuc Runa SC +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Leones del Norte to score first
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones del Norte / FT Leones del Norte✓
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.48
–
Recent results
Leones del Norte – last 6
LWWLLW
9 May
@ Orense SC
0–2
L
3 May
vs Emelec
2–0
W
22 Apr
vs Manta FC
3–0
W
17 Apr
vs Aucas
0–1
L
11 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mushuc Runa SC – last 6
LLDWLD
12 May
vs LDU de Quito
1–3
L
23 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Libertad
2–2
D
23 Mar
vs Emelec
2–0
W
19 Mar
@ Orense SC
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Macara
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones del Norte and Mushuc Runa SC.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Mushuc Runa SC 33%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–1 Mushuc Runa SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC?
Leones del Norte vs Mushuc Runa SC (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
