Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✗89% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38
Independiente del Valle vs Libertad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente del Valle welcome Libertad to Estadio Banco Guayaquil for a Liga Pro fixture on Saturday 23 May (01:00 WAT). In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 84 points after 35 matches; Libertad are 7th with 51. There are 33 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Libertad Asuncion, at home. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Libertad, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Deportivo Cuenca, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.8 for Libertad.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 2.1 xG, Libertad 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 69%, draw 20%, Libertad 11%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente del Valle to win (69%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Libertad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle69%fair 1.45 · @1.30
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @5.10
Libertad11%fair 8.94 · @9.40
2.86Expected goals
2.09Independiente del Valle xG
0.77Libertad xG
52%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.1 – 0.8 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✗
69%
1.45
1.30
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✗
89%
1.13
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.85
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✗
86%
1.16
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
1.22
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWLWW
20 May
vs Libertad Asuncion
4–1
W
13 May
@ Universidad Catolica
3–0
W
10 May
vs Barcelona SC
1–0
W
6 May
@ UCV
0–2
L
1 May
@ Universidad Catolica
3–2
W
28 Apr
@ Libertad Asuncion
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Libertad – last 6
LWLLDD
16 May
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 May
vs Aucas
3–2
W
21 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
7 Apr
vs Mushuc Runa SC
2–2
D
19 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and Libertad.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Libertad 11%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Libertad?
Independiente del Valle vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
