Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 56% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLibertad to win ✗44% · @2.34
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Libertad vs Leones del Norte: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Saturday 4 July: Libertad v Leones del Norte in the Liga Pro, played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne. In the table, Libertad are 7th on 51 points after 36 matches; Leones del Norte are 9th with 47.
Current form
Libertad, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Manta FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Leones del Norte, last 5: DWLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Macara, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Leones del Norte, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Libertad.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Libertad 1.4 xG, Leones del Norte 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Libertad 44%, draw 26%, Leones del Norte 30%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Libertad 1–1 Leones del Norte. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Libertad44%fair 2.28 · @2.34
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.20
Leones del Norte30%fair 3.35 · @3.05
2.39Expected goals
1.38Libertad xG
1.01Leones del Norte xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–09%
From our goals model: Libertad 1.4 – 1.0 Leones del Norte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Libertad to win✗
44%
2.28
2.34
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
Libertad (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Leones del Norte +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.06
First team to score
Libertad to score first
52%
1.91
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Libertad / FT Libertad✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.35
–
Recent results
Libertad – last 6
LWLWLL
30 May
@ Manta FC
1–2
L
23 May
@ Independiente del Valle
3–2
W
16 May
vs Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 May
vs Aucas
3–2
W
21 Apr
vs Guayaquil City FC
0–1
L
12 Apr
@ Orense SC
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Leones del Norte – last 6
DWLWLW
1 Jun
vs Macara
1–1
D
30 May
@ Huaquillas
1–0
W
24 May
@ Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
17 May
vs Mushuc Runa SC
3–1
W
9 May
@ Orense SC
0–2
L
3 May
vs Emelec
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertad and Leones del Norte.
What is the prediction for Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
On our numbers Libertad have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Leones del Norte 30%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
Our predicted score is Libertad 1–1 Leones del Norte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Libertad vs Leones del Norte?
Libertad vs Leones del Norte (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
