Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLDU de Quito to win ✗60% · @1.30
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✓82% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.68
LDU de Quito vs Libertad: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Sunday 12 July: LDU de Quito v Libertad in the Liga Pro, played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado. In the table, LDU de Quito are 4th on 54 points after 36 matches; Libertad are 7th with 51. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
LDU de Quito, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Ind. Juniors, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Libertad, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Leones del Norte, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours LDU de Quito, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Libertad.
Head to head
When they last met (8 Mar 2026) it ended Libertad 2–1 LDU de Quito.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give LDU de Quito 1.6 xG, Libertad 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – LDU de Quito 60%, draw 22%, Libertad 18%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (70%, odds 1.48 – longer than our fair 1.42, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: LDU de Quito 1–0 Libertad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
LDU de Quito60%fair 1.67 · @1.30
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @5.10
Libertad18%fair 5.52 · @9.70
2.45Expected goals
1.57LDU de Quito xG
0.88Libertad xG
54%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: LDU de Quito 1.6 – 0.9 Libertad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Libertad 18%.
How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 1–0 Libertad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is LDU de Quito vs Libertad?
LDU de Quito vs Libertad (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
