Mushuc Runa SC 18%Draw 23%Independiente del Valle 59%Expected goals 0.93 – 2.05
82%
Betarazi pick
Independiente del Valle or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 1.83 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓59% · @1.83
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mushuc Runa SC welcome Independiente del Valle to Estadio Bellavista for a Liga Pro fixture on Saturday 11 July (20:10 WAT). In the table, Mushuc Runa SC are 12th on 43 points after 36 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84. There are 41 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Mushuc Runa SC, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Universidad Catolica, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Santo Domingo, away. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.7 for Mushuc Runa SC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mushuc Runa SC 0.9 xG, Independiente del Valle 2.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 53% for three or more goals, 54% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mushuc Runa SC 18%, draw 23%, Independiente del Valle 59%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente del Valle or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Independiente del Valle or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.22, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mushuc Runa SC 0–2 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mushuc Runa SC18%fair 5.57 · @3.90
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.50
Independiente del Valle59%fair 1.68 · @1.83
2.98Expected goals
0.93Mushuc Runa SC xG
2.05Independiente del Valle xG
54%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Mushuc Runa SC 0.9 – 2.0 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
59%
1.68
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
1.83
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
1.10
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Mushuc Runa SC – last 6
WLDLLL
6 Jul
@ Universidad Catolica
3–2
W
3 Jun
@ Gualaceo SC
0–1
L
31 May
vs Aucas
0–0
D
17 May
@ Leones del Norte
1–3
L
12 May
vs LDU de Quito
1–3
L
23 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWWLW
8 Jul
@ Santo Domingo
2–0
W
4 Jul
vs Manta FC
4–0
W
31 May
@ Guayaquil City FC
4–2
W
27 May
vs Rosario Central
1–0
W
23 May
vs Libertad
2–3
L
20 May
vs Libertad Asuncion
4–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mushuc Runa SC and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Independiente del Valle or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Mushuc Runa SC have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Independiente del Valle 59%.
How many goals will there be in Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Mushuc Runa SC 0–2 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle?
Mushuc Runa SC vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 20:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Bellavista.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
