Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓64% · @1.62
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓87% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.18
Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:45 WAT, Sunday 26 July: Orense SC v Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro, played at Estadio 9 de Mayo. In the table, Orense SC are 13th on 39 points after 36 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 84. There are 45 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Orense SC, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Aucas, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Tecnico Universitario, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 3.0 points per game to 0.7 for Orense SC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Orense SC 0.9 xG, Independiente del Valle 2.1 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 52% and GG at 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Orense SC 13%, draw 22%, Independiente del Valle 64%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente del Valle or draw (87%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Orense SC 0–2 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Orense SC13%fair 7.53 · @5.60
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.65
Independiente del Valle64%fair 1.55 · @1.62
2.96Expected goals
0.86Orense SC xG
2.10Independiente del Valle xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Orense SC 0.9 – 2.1 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
64%
1.55
1.62
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
1.09
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✓
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.18
–
Recent results
Orense SC – last 6
WLLDLL
23 Jul
vs Aucas
2–1
W
20 Jul
@ Mushuc Runa SC
1–2
L
17 Jul
vs Emelec
0–2
L
11 Jul
@ Manta FC
0–0
D
7 Jul
vs Tecnico Universitario
1–2
L
1 Jul
@ LDU de Quito
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WWWWWW
22 Jul
vs Tecnico Universitario
3–0
W
20 Jul
vs Emelec
6–1
W
16 Jul
@ Aucas
3–0
W
11 Jul
@ Mushuc Runa SC
4–1
W
8 Jul
@ Santo Domingo
2–0
W
4 Jul
vs Manta FC
4–0
W
3.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orense SC and Independiente del Valle.
What is the prediction for Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers Orense SC have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independiente del Valle 64%.
How many goals will there be in Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is Orense SC 0–2 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle?
Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 21:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 9 de Mayo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
