Independiente del Valle 67%Draw 21%Universidad Catolica 12%Expected goals 2.15 – 0.81
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Independiente del Valle to win @ 1.63 – our chance 67% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✗67% · @1.63
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.30
Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 29 August the Liga Pro brings Independiente del Valle against Universidad Catolica at Estadio Banco Guayaquil. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 84 points after 35 matches; Universidad Catolica are 3rd with 54. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Deportes Tolima, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Universidad Catolica, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Manta FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.3 for Universidad Catolica.
Head to head
When they last met (13 May 2026) it ended Universidad Catolica 0–3 Independiente del Valle. The last 2 head-to-heads: Independiente del Valle 2 wins, Universidad Catolica 0, draws 0. Those games averaged 4.0 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 2.2 xG, Universidad Catolica 0.8 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 67%, draw 21%, Universidad Catolica 12%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente del Valle or draw (88%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Independiente del Valle to win @1.63 – the bookmaker implies 61%, our ratings say 67%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Universidad Catolica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle67%fair 1.49 · @1.63
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.95
Universidad Catolica12%fair 8.42 · @4.90
2.97Expected goals
2.15Independiente del Valle xG
0.81Universidad Catolica xG
56%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.2 – 0.8 Universidad Catolica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✗
67%
1.49
1.63 ▲
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.70
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.15
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Universidad Catolica 12%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 Universidad Catolica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica?
Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica (Liga Pro) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
