Value bet: Maardu to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMaardu to win ✗58% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.81
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.91
Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Maardu travel to face Nõmme Kalju II on Saturday 18 April in the Esiliiga A, with Hiiu Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 10:30 WAT. In the table, Nõmme Kalju II are 10th, in the drop zone, on 24 points after 36 matches; Maardu are 6th (lower half) with 45. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Nõmme Kalju II, last 3: LLL Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Tartu Welco, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 4.7 conceded per game.
Maardu, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over FCI Levadia II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Maardu, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.0 for Nõmme Kalju II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nõmme Kalju II 1.4 xG, Maardu 2.3 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 55% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nõmme Kalju II 24%, draw 19%, Maardu 58%.
Price worth noting: Maardu to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 Maardu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nõmme Kalju II24%fair 4.25 · @2.90
Draw19%fair 5.32 · @4.10
Maardu58%fair 1.73 · @1.85
3.72Expected goals
1.37Nõmme Kalju II xG
2.34Maardu xG
55%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
0–27%
2–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Nõmme Kalju II 1.4 – 2.3 Maardu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Maardu to win✗
58%
1.73
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
–
Draw no bet
Maardu (draw no bet)✗
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Nõmme Kalju II +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
–
First team to score
Maardu to score first
62%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Maardu ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Maardu / FT Maardu✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.91
–
Recent results
Nõmme Kalju II – last 3
LLL
11 Apr
vs Tartu Welco
1–5
L
4 Apr
@ FC Tallinn
3–6
L
19 Mar
@ Flora II
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
4.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Maardu – last 6
WDLLWD
11 Apr
vs FCI Levadia II
3–2
W
3 Apr
vs Tallinna Kalev
1–1
D
12 Mar
vs Elva
0–3
L
8 Mar
@ Nõmme United II
1–4
L
21 Feb
vs Tallinna Kalev II
3–1
W
15 Feb
vs Flora II
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nõmme Kalju II and Maardu.
What is the prediction for Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
On our numbers Nõmme Kalju II have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Maardu 58%.
How many goals will there be in Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
Our predicted score is Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 Maardu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu?
Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Hiiu Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
