Value bet: Elva to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultElva to win ✗63% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.16
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.65
Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Elva welcome Nõmme Kalju II to Nike Arena for a Esiliiga A fixture on Saturday 2 May (10:30 WAT). In the table, Elva are 4th, among the top four, on 55 points after 36 matches; Nõmme Kalju II are 10th (in the drop zone) with 24. There are 31 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Elva, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Tartu Welco, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Nõmme Kalju II, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Tallinna Kalev, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 3.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Elva 2.5 xG, Nõmme Kalju II 1.1 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 70% and GG at 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Elva 63%, draw 18%, Nõmme Kalju II 19%.
Price worth noting: Elva to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.24). Most likely score in line with that pick: Elva 2–1 Nõmme Kalju II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Elva63%fair 1.59 · @1.80
Draw18%fair 5.54 · @3.70
Nõmme Kalju II19%fair 5.21 · @3.20
3.59Expected goals
2.51Elva xG
1.08Nõmme Kalju II xG
54%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
1–17%
3–07%
1–07%
From our goals model: Elva 2.5 – 1.1 Nõmme Kalju II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Elva to win✗
63%
1.59
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.16
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
–
Draw no bet
Elva (draw no bet)✗
77%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Elva -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.02
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.24
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.81
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.30
First team to score
Elva to score first
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Elva ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Elva / FT Elva✗
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.65
–
Recent results
Elva – last 6
DLLLWW
27 Apr
@ Tartu Welco
3–3
D
23 Apr
@ Flora II
2–3
L
19 Apr
vs Nõmme United II
1–3
L
9 Apr
@ Tallinna Kalev
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Viimsi
1–0
W
21 Mar
vs FCI Levadia II
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Nõmme Kalju II – last 6
LWWLLL
27 Apr
vs Tallinna Kalev
0–4
L
24 Apr
@ Nõmme United II
3–0
W
18 Apr
vs Maardu
3–2
W
11 Apr
vs Tartu Welco
1–5
L
4 Apr
@ FC Tallinn
3–6
L
19 Mar
@ Flora II
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Elva and Nõmme Kalju II.
What is the prediction for Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II?
On our numbers Elva have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Nõmme Kalju II 19%.
How many goals will there be in Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II?
Our predicted score is Elva 2–1 Nõmme Kalju II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II?
Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Nike Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
