Value bet: Elva to win @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultElva to win ✗51% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.88
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.50
Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nõmme Kalju II welcome Elva to Hiiu Stadium for a Esiliiga A fixture on Sunday 5 July (13:00 WAT). In the table, Nõmme Kalju II are 10th, in the drop zone, on 24 points after 36 matches; Elva are 4th (among the top four) with 55. There are 31 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Nõmme Kalju II, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Tallinna Kalev, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Elva, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Järva-Jaani, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Elva, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Nõmme Kalju II.
Head to head
When they last met (2 May 2026) it ended Elva 2–4 Nõmme Kalju II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nõmme Kalju II 1.3 xG, Elva 2.2 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 53% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nõmme Kalju II 28%, draw 21%, Elva 51%.
Price worth noting: Elva to win @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 Elva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nõmme Kalju II28%fair 3.52 · @2.60
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @4.00
Elva51%fair 1.96 · @2.10
3.46Expected goals
1.31Nõmme Kalju II xG
2.16Elva xG
53%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
1–19%
0–27%
1–37%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Nõmme Kalju II 1.3 – 2.2 Elva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva?
On our numbers Nõmme Kalju II have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Elva 51%.
How many goals will there be in Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva?
Our predicted score is Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 Elva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva?
Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Hiiu Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
