Nõmme Kalju II 11%Draw 15%Tartu Welco 74%Expected goals 1.16 – 3.01
92%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.09 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
–Odds
Picks by market
ResultTartu Welco to win ✓74% · @1.17
Double chanceTartu Welco or draw ✓89% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.77
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✗8% · fair 12.27
Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nõmme Kalju II welcome Tartu Welco to Hiiu Stadium for a Esiliiga A fixture on Sunday 23 August (13:00 WAT). In the table, Nõmme Kalju II are 10th, in the drop zone, on 24 points after 36 matches; Tartu Welco are 1st (leading the league) with 80. There are 56 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Nõmme Kalju II, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Tallinna Kalev, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Tartu Welco, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 4–2 win over FCI Levadia II, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately.
Momentum favours Tartu Welco, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.0 for Nõmme Kalju II.
Head to head
When they last met (28 May 2026) it ended Tartu Welco 4–2 Nõmme Kalju II. The last 2 head-to-heads: Nõmme Kalju II 0 wins, Tartu Welco 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 6.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nõmme Kalju II 1.2 xG, Tartu Welco 3.0 xG – a total near 4.2. That is an open game on paper: 79% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nõmme Kalju II 11%, draw 15%, Tartu Welco 74%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (92%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nõmme Kalju II 1–3 Tartu Welco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nõmme Kalju II11%fair 9.00 · @9.00
Draw15%fair 6.85 · @7.00
Tartu Welco74%fair 1.35 · @1.17
4.16Expected goals
1.16Nõmme Kalju II xG
3.01Tartu Welco xG
57%Both score
79%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–38%
1–28%
0–37%
0–27%
1–46%
1–15%
From our goals model: Nõmme Kalju II 1.2 – 3.0 Tartu Welco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 92% chance.
Who will win Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
On our numbers Nõmme Kalju II have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Tartu Welco 74%.
How many goals will there be in Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
Our predicted score is Nõmme Kalju II 1–3 Tartu Welco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco?
Nõmme Kalju II vs Tartu Welco (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Hiiu Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
