Value bet: Tallinna Kalev to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTallinna Kalev to win ✗61% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.76
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓72% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.89
Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Monday 24 August: Tallinna Kalev v Maardu in the Esiliiga A, played at Kadrioru Staadion. In the table, Tallinna Kalev are 7th, lower half, on 41 points after 35 matches; Maardu are 6th (lower half) with 45.
Current form
Tallinna Kalev, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Nõmme Kalju II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Maardu, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Elva, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Tallinna Kalev, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.5 for Maardu.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Jul 2026) it ended Tallinna Kalev 3–3 Maardu. The last 2 head-to-heads: Tallinna Kalev 0 wins, Maardu 0, draws 2. Those games averaged 4.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tallinna Kalev 2.3 xG, Maardu 1.4 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 72% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tallinna Kalev 61%, draw 16%, Maardu 23%.
Price worth noting: Tallinna Kalev to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (72%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tallinna Kalev 2–1 Maardu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tallinna Kalev61%fair 1.64 · @1.80
Draw16%fair 6.17 · @4.20
Maardu23%fair 4.37 · @3.10
3.71Expected goals
2.35Tallinna Kalev xG
1.36Maardu xG
57%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Tallinna Kalev 2.3 – 1.4 Maardu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu?
On our numbers Tallinna Kalev have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Maardu 23%.
How many goals will there be in Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu?
Our predicted score is Tallinna Kalev 2–1 Maardu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu?
Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Monday 24 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Kadrioru Staadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
