Tartu Welco 72%Draw 17%Nõmme Kalju II 10%Expected goals 3.05 – 1.23
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultTartu Welco to win ✓72% · @1.14
Double chanceTartu Welco or draw ✓90% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓82% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗8% · fair 12.41
Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Monday 14 September: Tartu Welco v Nõmme Kalju II in the Esiliiga A, played at Holm Jalgpallipark. In the table, Tartu Welco are 1st, leading the league, on 80 points after 36 matches; Nõmme Kalju II are 10th (in the drop zone) with 24. There are 56 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tartu Welco, last 5: DDLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with FCI Levadia II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Nõmme Kalju II, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Flora II, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Tartu Welco, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Nõmme Kalju II.
Head to head
When they last met (23 Aug 2026) it ended Nõmme Kalju II 2–4 Tartu Welco. The last 3 head-to-heads: Tartu Welco 3 wins, Nõmme Kalju II 0, draws 0. Those games averaged 6.0 goals and saw GG land 3 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tartu Welco 3.1 xG, Nõmme Kalju II 1.2 xG – a total near 4.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 82% and GG at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tartu Welco 72%, draw 17%, Nõmme Kalju II 10%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.40.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 3.5 goals (65%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tartu Welco 3–1 Nõmme Kalju II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tartu Welco72%fair 1.38 · @1.14
Draw17%fair 5.78 · @7.00
Nõmme Kalju II10%fair 9.58 · @10.50
4.28Expected goals
3.05Tartu Welco xG
1.23Nõmme Kalju II xG
65%Both score
82%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–18%
2–18%
3–07%
2–06%
4–16%
1–15%
From our goals model: Tartu Welco 3.1 – 1.2 Nõmme Kalju II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II?
Our pick is Over 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II?
On our numbers Tartu Welco have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Nõmme Kalju II 10%.
How many goals will there be in Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 82% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II?
Our predicted score is Tartu Welco 3–1 Nõmme Kalju II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II?
Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Holm Jalgpallipark.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
