Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 2.34 – our chance 50% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✓50% · @2.34
Double chanceVila Nova or draw ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.61
Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nautico Recife travel to face Vila Nova on Saturday 20 June in the Serie B – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT. In the table, Vila Nova are 3rd, among the top four, on 66 points after 37 matches; Nautico Recife are 15th (lower half) with 46. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Vila Nova, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cuiaba, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Nautico Recife, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Novorizontino, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Nautico Recife.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vila Nova 1.6 xG, Nautico Recife 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vila Nova 50%, draw 25%, Nautico Recife 24%.
Lower-risk option: Vila Nova or draw (76%) at 1.35.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Vila Nova to win @2.34 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vila Nova or draw (76%, odds 1.35 – longer than our fair 1.32, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vila Nova 1–0 Nautico Recife. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vila Nova50%fair 1.99 · @2.34
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.10
Nautico Recife24%fair 4.12 · @3.15
2.46Expected goals
1.62Vila Nova xG
0.84Nautico Recife xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.6 – 0.8 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
Attack vs Serie B average
+16%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+17%
Our expected goals here
1.87
0.68
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✓
50%
1.99
2.34 ▲
Double chance
Vila Nova or draw✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.83
Draw no bet
Vila Nova (draw no bet)✓
67%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Nautico Recife +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Vila Nova to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✓
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.61
–
Recent results
Vila Nova – last 6
LWWWWD
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
31 May
@ Londrina
1–0
W
24 May
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
17 May
vs Avai
2–0
W
4 May
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Nautico Recife – last 6
DLLWWL
14 Jun
@ Novorizontino
2–2
D
9 Jun
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
31 May
@ Sport Recife
0–2
L
22 May
vs Cuiaba
1–0
W
27 Apr
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Ceara
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Nautico Recife.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Vila Nova or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nautico Recife 24%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–0 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 20 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
