São Bernardo 57%Draw 26%Avai 17%Expected goals 1.64 – 0.77
83%
Betarazi pick
São Bernardo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSão Bernardo to win ✗57% · @1.90
Double chanceSão Bernardo or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.74
São Bernardo vs Avai: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
São Bernardo welcome Avai to Estádio Primeiro de Maio for a Serie B fixture on Friday 17 July (23:00 WAT). In the table, São Bernardo are 11th, lower half, on 52 points after 37 matches; Avai are 17th (lower half) with 40. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
São Bernardo, last 5: DLLLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Cuiaba, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Avai, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Nautico Recife, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give São Bernardo 1.6 xG, Avai 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – São Bernardo 57%, draw 26%, Avai 17%.
Lower-risk option: São Bernardo or draw (83%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: São Bernardo to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was São Bernardo or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: São Bernardo 1–0 Avai. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
São Bernardo57%fair 1.76 · @1.90
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.25
Avai17%fair 5.85 · @4.30
2.42Expected goals
1.64São Bernardo xG
0.77Avai xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.6 – 0.8 Avai expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
São Bernardo
Avai
Attack vs Serie B average
+20%
-27%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.69
0.77
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
São Bernardo to win✗
57%
1.76
1.90 ▲
Double chance
São Bernardo or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.91
Draw no bet
São Bernardo (draw no bet)
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Avai +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
São Bernardo to score first✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.74
–
Recent results
São Bernardo – last 6
DLLLDW
12 Jul
vs Cuiaba
2–2
D
6 Jul
@ Vila Nova
1–2
L
27 Jun
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Juventude
0–1
L
14 Jun
vs Sport Recife
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ CRB
3–2
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Avai – last 6
WLLWLL
12 Jul
vs Nautico Recife
2–0
W
6 Jul
@ Botafogo SP
1–3
L
28 Jun
@ Athletic Club
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Cuiaba
1–0
W
16 Jun
@ Londrina
2–3
L
11 Jun
@ Ceara
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Bernardo and Avai.
Our pick is São Bernardo or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Avai?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Avai 17%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Avai?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Avai?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–0 Avai, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Avai?
São Bernardo vs Avai (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
