Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 2.24 – our chance 48% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNovorizontino to win ✗48% · @2.24
Double chanceNovorizontino or draw ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.53
Novorizontino vs Criciuma: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Criciuma travel to face Novorizontino on Tuesday 21 July in the Serie B, with Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Novorizontino are 1st, leading the league, on 70 points after 37 matches; Criciuma are 4th (among the top four) with 62.
Current form
Novorizontino, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Fortaleza EC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Criciuma, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Vila Nova, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Criciuma, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.7 for Novorizontino.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Novorizontino 1.4 xG, Criciuma 0.8 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Novorizontino 48%, draw 27%, Criciuma 25%.
Lower-risk option: Novorizontino or draw (75%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Novorizontino to win @2.24 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Novorizontino or draw (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Novorizontino 1–0 Criciuma. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Novorizontino48%fair 2.09 · @2.24
Draw27%fair 3.68 · @3.05
Criciuma25%fair 4.01 · @3.40
2.18Expected goals
1.42Novorizontino xG
0.77Criciuma xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–112%
2–011%
0–011%
2–19%
0–19%
From our goals model: Novorizontino 1.4 – 0.8 Criciuma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Novorizontino
Criciuma
Attack vs Serie B average
+44%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
-26%
-23%
Our expected goals here
1.53
0.62
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✗
48%
2.09
2.24 ▲
Double chance
Novorizontino or draw✗
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.00
Draw no bet
Novorizontino (draw no bet)✗
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
Criciuma +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.09
1.05
First team to score
Novorizontino to score first✗
58%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✗
31%
3.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.53
–
Recent results
Novorizontino – last 6
LLWWWD
18 Jul
@ Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
12 Jul
@ Operario-PR
1–2
L
4 Jul
vs Atletico Goianiense
3–0
W
26 Jun
vs Vila Nova
2–1
W
23 Jun
@ Ponte Preta
2–0
W
14 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Criciuma – last 6
WWWWWD
18 Jul
vs Vila Nova
2–0
W
9 Jul
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Sport Recife
1–0
W
27 Jun
vs São Bernardo
1–0
W
24 Jun
@ America Mineiro
1–0
W
16 Jun
vs Ceara
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novorizontino and Criciuma.
What is the prediction for Novorizontino vs Criciuma?
Our pick is Novorizontino or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Criciuma?
On our numbers Novorizontino have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Criciuma 25%.
How many goals will there be in Novorizontino vs Criciuma?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novorizontino vs Criciuma?
Our predicted score is Novorizontino 1–0 Criciuma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Novorizontino vs Criciuma?
Novorizontino vs Criciuma (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
