Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAmerica Mineiro to win ✗39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.18
America Mineiro vs São Bernardo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 14 September the Serie B brings America Mineiro against São Bernardo at Arena Independência. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, America Mineiro are 19th, in the drop zone, on 29 points after 37 matches; São Bernardo are 11th (lower half) with 52. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
America Mineiro, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Nautico Recife, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
São Bernardo, last 5: LWLDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Londrina, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give America Mineiro 1.3 xG, São Bernardo 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – America Mineiro 39%, draw 24%, São Bernardo 36%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: São Bernardo to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: America Mineiro 1–1 São Bernardo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
America Mineiro39%fair 2.54 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.00
São Bernardo36%fair 2.75 · @3.10
2.50Expected goals
1.28America Mineiro xG
1.22São Bernardo xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: America Mineiro 1.3 – 1.2 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
America Mineiro to win✗
39%
2.54
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Draw no bet
America Mineiro (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
São Bernardo +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
America Mineiro to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT America Mineiro / FT America Mineiro✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.18
–
Recent results
America Mineiro – last 6
WLWLLL
10 Sep
vs Nautico Recife
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ CRB
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Ponte Preta
2–0
W
24 Aug
@ Sport Recife
0–3
L
21 Aug
@ Novorizontino
0–3
L
16 Aug
vs Athletic Club
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
São Bernardo – last 6
LWLDDL
10 Sep
vs Londrina
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Ponte Preta
2–0
W
28 Aug
@ Goias
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Nautico Recife
1–1
D
19 Aug
@ Fortaleza EC
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Botafogo SP
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between America Mineiro and São Bernardo.
What is the prediction for America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers America Mineiro have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and São Bernardo 36%.
How many goals will there be in America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is America Mineiro 1–1 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is America Mineiro vs São Bernardo?
America Mineiro vs São Bernardo (Serie B) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Independência.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
