Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✓41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.14
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nautico Recife welcome Vila Nova for a Serie B fixture on Sunday 11 October (21:30 WAT). In the table, Nautico Recife are 15th, lower half, on 46 points after 37 matches; Vila Nova are 3rd (among the top four) with 66. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Nautico Recife, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Novorizontino, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Vila Nova, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cuiaba, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.8 for Nautico Recife.
Head to head
When they last met (20 Jun 2026) it ended Vila Nova 4–3 Nautico Recife.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nautico Recife 1.1 xG, Vila Nova 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nautico Recife 35%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 41%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Vila Nova to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nautico Recife 1–1 Vila Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nautico Recife35%fair 2.86 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.00
Vila Nova41%fair 2.44 · @2.70
2.41Expected goals
1.14Nautico Recife xG
1.27Vila Nova xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Nautico Recife 1.1 – 1.3 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Nautico Recife have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vila Nova 41%.
How many goals will there be in Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Nautico Recife 1–1 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
