São Luiz 34%Draw 29%Caxias 36%Expected goals 1.15 – 1.09
64%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCaxias to win ✓36% · @2.33
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓7% · fair 13.76
São Luiz vs Caxias: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
São Luiz welcome Caxias for a Gaúcho 1 fixture on Monday 16 February (23:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give São Luiz 1.1 xG, Caxias 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – São Luiz 34%, draw 29%, Caxias 36%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: São Luiz 1–1 Caxias. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
São Luiz34%fair 2.92 · @3.10
Draw29%fair 3.40 · @2.85
Caxias36%fair 2.75 · @2.33
2.24Expected goals
1.15São Luiz xG
1.09Caxias xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: São Luiz 1.1 – 1.1 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caxias to win✓
36%
2.75
2.33
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.42
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Caxias (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Caxias +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
São Luiz to score first✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Luiz / FT São Luiz✗
21%
4.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
7%
13.76
–
Recent results
São Luiz
No recent results on record.
Caxias
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Luiz and Caxias.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win São Luiz vs Caxias?
On our numbers São Luiz have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Caxias 36%.
How many goals will there be in São Luiz vs Caxias?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Luiz vs Caxias?
Our predicted score is São Luiz 1–1 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is São Luiz vs Caxias?
São Luiz vs Caxias (Gaúcho 1) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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