Cerro 34%Draw 29%Boston River 38%Expected goals 1.07 – 1.06
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBoston River to win ✗38% · @2.36
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.04
Cerro vs Boston River: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Boston River travel to face Cerro on Saturday 28 February in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Luis Troccoli the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Cerro are 9th, lower half, on 18 points after 13 matches; Boston River are 11th (lower half) with 15. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro 1.1 xG, Boston River 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro 34%, draw 29%, Boston River 38%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro 1–1 Boston River. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro34%fair 2.97 · @3.15
Draw29%fair 3.50 · @2.86
Boston River38%fair 2.65 · @2.36
2.12Expected goals
1.07Cerro xG
1.06Boston River xG
52%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–113%
0–012%
2–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Cerro 1.1 – 1.1 Boston River expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cerro
Boston River
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-9%
-15%
Goals conceded vs average
+20%
+8%
Our expected goals here
1.26
1.10
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boston River to win✗
38%
2.65
2.36
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.40
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Boston River (draw no bet)
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Boston River +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.13
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Cerro to score first
44%
2.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
20%
4.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.04
–
Recent results
Cerro – last 2
DL
20 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Boston River – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Danubio
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Boston River.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Cerro vs Boston River?
On our numbers Cerro have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Boston River 38%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Boston River?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Boston River?
Our predicted score is Cerro 1–1 Boston River, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Boston River?
Cerro vs Boston River (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Troccoli.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
